Pennsylvania; the “Key” to Victory?
The 2020 election is arguably one of the most consequential in American history. From the global virus pandemic, to frayed race relations, to divisions within the political world, it is no laughing matter. The two presidential candidates, incumbent President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden are battling for victory, and with Election Day less than 10 days away, both candidates need to prove that they can lead the country. However, it is a major toss up in some states, as they are undecided. States can be undecided for a variety of reasons, but ultimately, they must decide. One such state is Pennsylvania.
Known for its geographic diversity, Pennsylvania (also known as the “Keystone State”) has a reputation for being a swing state, meaning its voting patterns are known to be unpredictable. Although it had been leaning Democratic for many years, it’s rightward shift in the 2016 election was not surprising. For decades, Pennsylvania was known as a hub for manufacturing and mining, making it a sizable place for labor unions (which historically supported Democratic policies) to thrive. However, as those sectors have left Pennsylvania, many of the individuals formerly a part of those industries became disenfranchised with the Democratic Party, seeing it as “elitist” and looking out for other interests. Feeling forgotten, those individuals came out in droves to vote for Donald Trump in 2016, narrowly making Pennsylvania a red state for the first time since 1988. Pennsylvania’s shift in 2016 was striking, because in the previous six presidential elections, Pennsylvania voted blue, although in close numbers. But Pennsylvania’s population is not just composed of former manufacturing bases, typically located in the central and northeastern portion of the state. The suburbs in Pennsylvania, specifically outside of Philadelphia, have increasingly played a large role in their elections. As the United States’ suburbs have become wealthier and increasingly educated, Pennsylvania is no exception to this trend. The counties outside of Philadelphia are prime examples of the new suburban trend, and suburbs with those trends typically lean Democratic. They played a big role in keeping Pennsylvania democratic in recent years, along with the old manufacturing bases for a long time. But 2016 changed everything. Pennsylvania started to increasingly move to the right post election, but Philadelphia’s suburbs are moving to the left. But, this rightward trend could reverse with the 2020 election, as most polls are indicating support for Biden. How has this happened?
Interestingly, although many of the people that voted for Trump were dissatisfied with the Democratic Party, their support for Trump has somewhat waned. The reasoning for this varies. Not only are Philadelphia’s blue suburbs have caught up in their numbers, especially after the blue wave of the 2018 midterm elections, but it is also due to the coronavirus pandemic. The coronavirus pandemic has shut down many aspects of life, including in person elections. Pennsylvania has been the source of controversy with their elections this year, as there is widespread confusion on how to obtain and submit mail-in ballots, and overall misinformation regarding the election. Some voters are placing this blame on President Trump, as he has downplayed the seriousness of the virus for many months, and even after catching it, has brushed aside the severity of it. The coronavirus is not the only concern President Trump has to deal with.
Joe Biden has an advantage campaigning in Pennsylvania, as he is emphasizing his background on the campaign trail. A native of Scranton, Biden spent a portion of his childhood there from a working class background. Biden knows his background in Pennsylvania is important, as Pennsylvania can not only clinch the election for him, but being able to relate as a native son. Biden, unlike Trump, has also discussed the implications of the virus. Biden has stated that the country needs to have a unified consensus on fighting the virus, and doing our part to prevent it. Trump, on the other hand, claims that it is up to the states to fight the virus, and has accused the media of fear mongering. As previously mentioned, Trump won in 2016 in the Scranton area by large margins, so Biden needs to carefully curate his message if he hopes to win Pennsylvania, and it seems to be working. Currently, Biden is leading in the majority of national polls compared to President Trump, although it is by a slim margin. This is important because this effectively changes the race for Biden, and if the polls continue like this until Election Day, there is a strong chance the election in Pennsylvania will go to Biden’s favor. However, Biden’s lead in the polls is something to not completely rely on. After the disastrous polling data from 2016 lead to Trump’s unexpected victory, the Democratic Party is making sure not to completely rely on polls, but making sure Biden continues to campaign in key states, especially in the northern counties in Pennsylvania that brought Trump his victory.
Overall, Biden’s message has been consistent throughout his campaign, and it is no different in swing states. If he continues to curate his message carefully, then he can clinch the election, and become the next President of the United States.
