Flipping Georgia; History in the Making?
The 2020 election was one of the most divisive elections in American history. From a global pandemic, to frayed race relations, to the candidates themselves, this election was no laughing matter. But both presidential candidates had to prove that they could handle such unprecedented crises, only unprecedented as all of this has occurred in a single calendar year. At the end of the day, after a long and fraught election battle, American voters made their choice and elected Joe Biden as the next president of the United States. Biden won the popular vote with six million more votes than President Trump, at 79,823,827 votes vs. 73,786,905 votes. Both popular vote totals have shattered previous voting records, as both totals were the most ever casted for a political candidate. The 2020 election also had the highest turnout levels in over one hundred years, not only proving its importance, but also showing the power of mail-in voting, used by most states due to the global pandemic. However, Biden won the Electoral College by razor thin margins, including the state of Georgia.
Biden’s victory in Georgia is symbolic. Not only is Georgia a traditionally red state, but it is the first time since 1992 that a Democratic presidential candidate has won Georgia. Biden’s victory could potentially spell changes for Georgia’s political dynamics down the line, as evidenced through its capital city of Atlanta and its suburbs, but it does not necessarily mean that those changes will occur throughout the state. Biden’s victory in Georgia officially cemented its battleground status, but will its battleground status last? Frankly, it will not last.
Biden won the Electoral College in Georgia by a razor thin margin, gaining 49.5% of the vote, compared to President Trump, who garnered 49.3% of the vote. Essentially, only twelve thousand votes separated victory between Biden and Trump, but it was subject to controversy, especially for President Trump. As the votes were being counted in Georgia, it looked increasingly likely that Biden would receive victory, and as a result, a further blow to Trump’s re-election chances. This was devastating for Trump, because Georgia had been a reliably red state for many years, and Trump won Georgia in 2016, so he believed he would win again. Trump ended up not winning Georgia, and a few other battleground states, including Michigan and Wisconsin by small margins, and therefore lost the election. Trump’s defeat is also significant because it is the first time since 1992 that an incumbent president has not been re-elected. If Georgia was so reliably red, how did it vote for Biden?
Georgia’s flip to Biden did not necessarily come overnight. Rather, it was a series of factors that led to Trump’s defeat in Georgia. Georgia, like many other states, was hit hard by the pandemic, but controversy surrounded its response. Georgia governor Brian Kemp was criticized for his handling of the pandemic, easing Georgia’s response to it not long after it hit, and overrode municipal orders in many of its major cities, including Atlanta. This is not the first time Kemp has been subject to controversy, however. In 2018, Kemp won the Georgia governorship against Democratic opponent Stacey Abrams by a very narrow margin. It marked the end of an ugly and contentious race, with ads blasting the opposing candidate(s), and perhaps worst of all, Kemp was accused of voter suppression during his tenure as Georgia’s secretary of state, as votes were allegedly canceled out in the years before the 2018 election. Most of the votes cancelled were from Democrat leaning urban areas such as Atlanta, and those urban areas consisted of a majority-minority population (mostly African Americans). Abrams accused Kemp of canceling the votes to disenfranchise the minority populations in Georgia so he could be victorious, essentially claiming voter fraud. The accusations reminded Georgia of its painful history, where it actively engaged in voter suppression of minorities until the 1960’s, engaging in activities such as poll taxes and false-answer voting exams. Kemp fired back and stated that his office did not engage in voter suppression nor was it racially charged, stating he actually expanded voting access in Georgia and blamed Abrams for starting a “publicity stunt” because she did not win the election. However, Abrams eventually acknowledged Kemp’s victory, and instead started a political action committee to educate voters about their rights, especially minority voters, and get them out to the polls.
Abrams is credited with turning Georgia blue for the 2020 election, because she encouraged minority voters, especially from urban areas, to come out to the polls, which they did. However, Abrams’ victory could partially be attributed to President Trump. President Trump has been widely criticized for his handling of the pandemic, and is strongly disliked by various groups of individuals, including women, suburban voters, and minorities. This strong dislike is also credited for turning Atlanta’s suburbs blue within the past few years, and ultimately flipping Georgia blue for the presidential election. But it is important to note that a strong blue presence is something that was not easy to recruit. Abrams spent approximately a decade attempting to convince party leaders that Georgia is a two party state, and bringing together a strong democratic presence in Georgia, especially with minorities and in urban areas. But, the rest of the state outside of its major cities or their suburbs do not lean Democratic. In fact, the rest of the state is strongly conservative, and is the reason why the majority of elections in Georgia have been red for decades. Essentially, Abrams’ newly built coalition is fragile, as it was the first time many of those within the coalition voted, and the dislike of Trump was so evident within the coalition, it turned out in strong numbers. But, this will most likely not last, as the United States has historically had low voting turnout records, and sustaining a coalition needs to produce results and votes in order for it to survive.
